I agree with your conclusion on why FDR refused to take the possibility of Japanese attack seriously. They likely didn't think the Japan would take the risk after being bogged down in China and starting a war against the U.S. and British Empire. It seemed like FDR was too busy focusing on a European war and hoped he could weaken Japan without going to war. Your correct that FDR should've modernized Pearl Harbor defenses and or kept the fleet on the West Coast.
I would need to dig in more, but I'm unsure at what point modernizing Pearl Harbor's defenses would have come up against our Washington Naval Treaty obligations. Keeping the fleet in California was by far the more prudent move.
I agree with your conclusion on why FDR refused to take the possibility of Japanese attack seriously. They likely didn't think the Japan would take the risk after being bogged down in China and starting a war against the U.S. and British Empire. It seemed like FDR was too busy focusing on a European war and hoped he could weaken Japan without going to war. Your correct that FDR should've modernized Pearl Harbor defenses and or kept the fleet on the West Coast.
I would need to dig in more, but I'm unsure at what point modernizing Pearl Harbor's defenses would have come up against our Washington Naval Treaty obligations. Keeping the fleet in California was by far the more prudent move.